I'm almost certain that Trump will win the nomination on the GOP side. On the Democrat side, there is considerable debate about who will win the nomination. The polling in the major media does not reflect the social media. Where Clinton tends to be reported as winning the polls in the major media, Bernie is dominating social media. The Sanders campaign now has a lead in New Hampshire and is within striking distance of winning in Iowa. If Sanders win those two primaries, then Bernie has a great shot at winning the nomination.
In order for Bernie Sanders to win the nomination, his supporters must register to vote and vote for him in the primaries in every state. Unfortunately, primary voting procedures vary from state to state and there may be confusion as to how and when to vote for Bernie. To address this problem, the campaign has put together a great map showing how to vote for Bernie in the primaries, state by state. You can see the map here:
One you land on that page, you find your state on the map, click there and you will land on a page with instructions for how to vote for Bernie in the primaries.
Why is this important? To put it simply, the more votes Bernie gets in the primaries, the more votes he will get from delegates at the Democratic Convention next year. For Bernie to win the nomination, he also has to overcome the superdelegate problem:
About 85% of the delegates vote the way we vote. They look at our votes and follow our votes. This is how the regular delegates vote.
About 15% of the delegates are "superdelegates" and they vote their conscience. They are made up of former politicians and other VIPs in the Democratic Party. they vote however they want, regardless of the outcome in the primaries.Here is a video that explains the Super Delegate problem.
Here is an article that explains the Super Delegate problem.
Here is another article that explains that if Bernie gets zero Super Delegate votes, he will need at least 55% of the vote to win.
Bull Moose Nation has this to say about the superdelegate problem:
"The irony is that no one knows about this problem better than Hillary Clinton. When she ran against President Obama in 2008 she won the popular vote counting the ballots in Michigan - it was the superdelegates who ended up making the decision. She was unable, however, to secure the needed superdelegate votes and lost the nomination as a result.
The Bernie Sanders campaign is vulnerable to falling into a similar trap since the majority of Democratic Party leaders having been falling in behind Hillary Clinton. If we as a public truly believe that Bernie Sanders is the man who will best represent us, the first step that we need to take is making sure that he gets the nomination."Hilary knows how important the primary vote is. So does Bernie. Anyone and everyone who wants to see Bernie in the White House should know about the superdelegate problem and act accordingly.
What we need to do is "Double Down on Bernie". We need to bring in another 8 million votes in the primaries from people who are registered to vote, but are not showing up at the primaries.
We need to do more than just cast our own vote. We need to talk to the people we know and get them to vote, too. The Vote For Bernie website will show you how to make sure your vote counts for Bernie Sanders in the primaries.
This is how we win the nomination and the White House. We show up and we vote.